:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 350 km/s at 04/1407Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
04/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/1745Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 652 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 078
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  007/010-015/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/25
Minor Storm           10/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/60/30