:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 06/1257Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 06/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
06/0514Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 074
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/15