:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 535 km/s at 06/2224Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Jan, 09 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 075
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/25