:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 11/2100Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 11/1347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at
11/1329Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 073
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15