:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 13/0405Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1051Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 073
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 073/074/075
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15