:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 324 km/s at 14/2109Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1814Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to active levels on day
two (17 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 073
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/005-009/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/40