:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 16/1013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/0832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/1049Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18
Jan, 19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 078
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-011/012-013/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/40
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/40/55