:Product: 0117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 316 km/s at 16/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/2041Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19
Jan, 20 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 077
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  011/012-013/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/55/45