:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 312 km/s at 18/2053Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
18/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
18/2018Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 398 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 075
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 077/082/085
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  011/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/45/25