:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 19 2235 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1754Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 339 km/s at 19/1222Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0136Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 078
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 080/085/085
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  011/014-011/014-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/45/35