:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan,
23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 20/2258Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
21/0948Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 078
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10