:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 358 km/s at 22/1900Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/1433Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 078
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  006/005-007/007-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/25