:Product: 0123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 374 km/s at 23/2035Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
23/2026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/2023Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jan, 25 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 078
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  007/007-007/008-006/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/20