:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 402 km/s at 24/0037Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/2039Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 078
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/10