:Product: 0125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 25/2057Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 25/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
25/2056Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet
levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 077
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 078/076/074
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  010/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/10/10
Minor Storm           30/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    70/10/10