:Product: 0126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 26/0306Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 25/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 25/2102Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 867 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 076
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 076/074/074
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10