:Product: 0127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 27/1156Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/0609Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/0221Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3242 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 076
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 076/076/074
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10