:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 373 km/s at 29/2203Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Jan), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (01 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three
(02 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 074
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 074/074/072
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  007/008-013/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/30
Minor Storm           05/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/60/40