:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 329 km/s at 31/2052Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5068 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 073
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 073/073/072
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  013/018-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/30