:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 01/2004Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
01/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/1507Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2547 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (04
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 074
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 074/072/072
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  014/018-009/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/10
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/40/10