:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 564 km/s at 02/1627Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 02/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
02/0158Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 350 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 073
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  009/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/10