:Product: 0203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 03/0547Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 03/1546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/1749Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 537 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 074
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 074/072/070
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/20