:Product: 0204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 04/0505Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 03/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/0039Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Feb 074
Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        04 Feb 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-007/008-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/40