:Product: 0205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 05/0001Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 073
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  007/008-014/016-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/35