:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 09/0904Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/0348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/0013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 070
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15