:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 12 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 360 km/s at 11/2257Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
12/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/1848Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 072
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  010/012-009/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/40
Minor Storm           01/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/40/65