:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 500 km/s at 13/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/2103Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Feb, 16 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 071
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10