:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 15/1948Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/2034Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 314 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 070
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10