:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 17/0625Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1828Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 072
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  006/005-006/005-010/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/50