:Product: 0219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 19/2037Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 19/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
19/2034Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 073
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  015/018-009/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/30