:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 20/1754Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 20/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 19/2101Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 858 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 076
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  013/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  009/018-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/20