:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb,
25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 23/0122Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/0652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0518Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 14236 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (25 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (26
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 078
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  020/025-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/15/05
Minor Storm           30/01/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    70/20/10