:Product: 0224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb,
26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 24/0822Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 24/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/1617Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 22370 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 081
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  012/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/10/10