:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/1800Z from Region 2804 (N21W74). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar)
and expected to be very low on day three (02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 26/2206Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1628 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (01 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 079
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 080/078/074
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  006/005-010/012-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/40
Minor Storm           01/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/40/60