:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 02/2038Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 02/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/1332Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 605 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 075
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  016/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  015/018-008/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/30
Minor Storm           20/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/40