:Product: 0303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0003Z from Region 2807 (S18E29). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 03/0350Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 02/2227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 03/0011Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4797 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Mar, 05 Mar) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 074
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  008/010-007/010-018/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/65