:Product: 0304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 04/0019Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/0843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0001Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6727 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 081
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 080/078/075
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  007/010-018/020-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           10/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/65/40