:Product: 0305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 04/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 05/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
05/1716Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6209 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 073
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  016/020-013/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/40/40