:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 06/1528Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 06/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
06/0141Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3065 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 077
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 077/077/075
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  013/015-007/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/40