:Product: 0307RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 07/0358Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1556Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1419 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 078
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 076/072/070
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  007/005-007/005-007/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/30