:Product: 0308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 08/1403Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/1143Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1625 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 Mar, 11
Mar) and quiet levels on day two (10 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 080
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 080/075/075
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  007/008-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20