:Product: 0310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 424 km/s at 10/0735Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
10/1603Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1458 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Mar, 12 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (13 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 079
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 079/079/079
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  006/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/30