:Product: 0312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 11/2203Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 12/0442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/0528Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (15
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 077
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  015/020-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    55/30/10