:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 13/2046Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 13/0257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
13/0304Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 081
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10