:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 14/0900Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 14/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 14/0338Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2744 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 078
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10