:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 15/0108Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 15/0309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/2116Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2991 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (18 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 075
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/30