:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 16/0038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3681 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 079
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  006/005-008/008-016/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/40
Minor Storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/30/55