:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 16/2331Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
17/1640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1431Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5873 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (19 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 078
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 078/078/076
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/005-009/012-018/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/50/60