:Product: 0318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 350 km/s at 18/0235Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/0233Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1500 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Mar) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 073
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  008/012-018/024-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor Storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/60/25