:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 19/0023Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 19/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
19/0915Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1198 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21
Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (22 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 074
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 074/074/072
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  018/024-016/022-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/35/30